Newhall, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS66 KLOX 272139
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
239 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025

Updated marine section

.SYNOPSIS...27/117 PM.

A warming trend will occur through the week, with above normal
temperatures expected Thursday into the weekend. Heat will peak on
Friday, with highs near or above 100 degrees likely for the
deserts and warmest valleys. Marine layer clouds and fog will
affect the coast and some valleys each night and morning, becoming
shallow and confined to the coastal plains Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...27/202 PM.

Moderate offshore gradient trends south of Pt Conception along
with a slightly warmer air mass overall led to several degrees of
warming today, especially away from the immediate coast. Along the
Central Coast a slow clearing marine layer led to cooling along
the coast but inland areas were warmer.

Very little change expected Wednesday as another weak upper low
approaches from the west and likely keeps the marine layer on the
deeper side. This morning cloud top reports were between 2500 and
3000 feet and forecast soundings are indicating little change in
that while onshore flow is similar to today. Thus, expecting
another round of morning stratus for all the coast and coastal
valleys and temperatures within 1-3 degrees of today and also
withing 1-3 degrees of normal.

A warming trend will begin in earnest Thursday and peak Friday.
The one big caveat being the upper low which cuts off and
lingers just south of the border through the weekend and perhaps
into next week according to some ensemble solutions. Given that
models are pretty consistent with the track, there is higher
confidence that temperatures will heat up significantly north of
Pt Conception, and particularly inland SLO County where chances of
needing heat advisories are around 70-80%. The record high Friday
in Paso Robles is 102 and highs are expected to be right around
that number. Virtually all the ensemble models show highs at or
above 100 there Friday and some as high as 106. Farther south the
upper low may keep temperatures down just enough to hold off on
advisories but more time is needed to see how the pattern evolves.
In any case, it will be a warm or hot ending to the week away
from the immediate coast.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...27/204 PM.

Onshore flow is expected to begin increasing Saturday which will
lead to some cooling across the area, but how much cooling is
still uncertain. There may be some mid and high level moisture
rotating around the low from the east that could mitigate the heat
somewhat.

Sunday through Monday, the cutoff low is favored to move west
over land just south of the region. This would bring southerly
flow, moisture, and instability to the area, along with a
significant drop in temperatures, especially on Monday when highs
are likely to be several degrees below normal. Currently there is
around a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon through early Monday, focused south of Point
Conception. The greatest chance of convection will be over the
mountains of LA and Ventura Counties. Looking ahead further into
next week, some model projections hint at an unseasonably cold
pattern with more chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1818Z.

Around 1730Z, the marine layer depth was around 2700 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was around 4700 feet with a
temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal and valley
terminals. High confidence in the current forecast for desert
terminals.

VFR conditions will continue to develop through 22Z at the latest.
A return of IFR to MVFR conditions will spread into coastal and
valleys through 10Z. There is a likely chance of LIFR conditions
developing at terminals north of Point Conception between 10Z and
13Z. There is a moderate chance of IFR conditions in drizzle at
Los Angeles County terminals between 13Z and 16Z. VFR conditions
should develop a little later on Wednesday for coastal terminals.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through at least 01Z. MVFR
conditions will spread into KLAX as early as 01Z, or as late as
08Z. There is a 40 percent chance of IFR conditions in drizzle
between 13Z and 16Z. VFR conditions could as early as 17Z
Wednesday, but more likely around 19Z.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through at least 05Z. Lower
confidence in timing. MVFR conditions will spread into KLAX as
early as 05Z, or as late as 13Z. There is a 30 percent chance of
IFR conditions in drizzle between 13Z and 16Z. VFR conditions
should as early as 17Z Wednesday, but more likely around 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...27/238 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Lesser confidence in
the forecast for seas.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel
Islands and beyond 10 NM of the Central Coast, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue through late tonight.
There is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of SCA conditions on
Wednesday night, increasing to a imminent (80-100 percent) chance
Wednesday night through Friday. There is a moderate-to-high (40-60
percent) chance of GALES late Wednesday night and Thursday. There
could be lulls in the late night and early morning hours tonight
and Wednesday. Conditions should be below SCA levels Friday
through Saturday, but confidence is growing for SCA level winds
Saturday night through Tuesday.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a
high-to-likely (50-70 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds this afternoon and evening, and again Wednesday
afternoon and evening, then there is a likely (60-80 percent)
chance of SCA level winds Thursday afternoon and evening.
Conditions should be below SCA levels Friday through Sunday, but
confidence is growing for SCA level winds Sunday night through
Tuesday.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a moderate-to-high (40-60
percent) chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and evening and
again Wednesday afternoon and evening. The highest chances will be
for the far western portion. Moderate confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA levels for Friday through Sunday.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
moderate-to-high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA
levels through Sunday. There is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance
of local SCA level winds from near Point Dume into the Santa
Monica Bay this afternoon and this evening.

&&

.BEACHES...27/1118 AM.

A long period south swell, that brought elevated surf conditions
and a high risk for hazardous rip currents over the weekend, will
continue to subside through late tonight.

Another long period south swell will bring another round of
elevated surf up to 6 feet and strong and hazardous rip currents
over the upcoming weekend. Confidence is moderately high in the
timing between Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for
      zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/MW/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox